Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
